From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: vnunet.com [Linux] Linux: long-term commitment or a flash in the pan?
Date: 23 Feb 2000 05:45:45 -0000
Gartner Group's take on acceptance of Linux. A bit of
back-peddling. Note:
"... Linux outside its core areas of ecommerce and web servers ..."
Considering ecommerce as a core application of Linux is a bit
unusual-ecommerce is owned by Sun and IBM's AIX.
At any rate, their assessment that Linux could be a fluke, and this
year will tell the difference agrees pretty well with the theory of
lock-in/stochastic/path-dependency.
If it is assumed that February, 1997, was when the Linux bubble
started, then there is a 50/50 chance that it will last until mid 2001
on shear luck alone. Any longer than that, and the chances that it is
a fluke deteriorate at a 1 / sqrt (t) scenario.
The expansions and contractions of the electronics industry seems to
follow the 1 / sqrt (t) scenario very well. An analysis, with
comparative empirical and theoretical graphs is at:
http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014184454.18095.html
http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014210544.18525.html
http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014222823.18931.html
http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014233807.19309.html
John
http://www.vnunet.com/Features/107058
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/