From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: They're Crammed in Like Cattle
Date: 9 May 2000 07:23:03 -0000
BTW, just so there is no confusion, looking at a 30% chance of the
"bubble" in the valley continuing through the end of the year, or,
waiting two months for the negative Linux press to die down, or, a
50/50 chance of Linux being "up" by the end of the year, etc., as
being negative, or pessimistic, is a very inappropriate and naive
interpretation.
Although these numbers are very accurate, (sometimes going to 5 and 6
decimal place accuracies,) pessimistic, (or optimistic, for that
matter,) interpretations are never justified-the numbers simply do not
say such things; these are circumstantial and subjective
interpretations, (which, on average, are exactly 50% correct.)
What they do mean is that such things are a very complex system,
(probably beyond human comprehension,) that is made up of mini
"bubbles", that assemble their self into "bubbles", that assemble
their self into macro "bubbles", and so on, at all scales and levels,
large and small, (that is what the word "fractal" means-which is a
geometric interpretation of the characteristics of a chaotic, or
nonlinear dynamical system.)
So, you can have the macro "bubbles" going down, the "bubbles" going
up, and the micro "bubbles" going down, (and all combination thereof,
at all scales and levels.)
The bad news is that it is impossible to operate in these systems
without gambling, (they are lotteries.) The good news is that they are
exploitable at all scales, (whether the "trend"-whatever that means in
a fractal system-is up, or down.)
The meek do not inherit the earth.
The agile do.
The numbers just tell the agile how the game should be played.
John
John Conover writes:
>
> Well, its a nice story on cramped cubicles, (we could add a thing or two,) but
> what caught my 'bots attention was:
>
> ... start-up boom bubbles along for its umpteenth year ...
>
> which is kind of a cavalier attitude.
>
> The current "bubble", (I hate that term, and never use it without quotes,) began
> in June of 1991, so umpteenth year happens to be more like nine years. The
> chances
> of it continuing through this year is a little more than 30%.
>
> See:
>
> http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014184454.18095.html
> http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014210544.18525.html
> http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014222823.18931.html
> http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/981014233807.19309.html
>
> for particulars-which is an analysis of the entire US DOC electronics industry
> database, (monthly data,) for the last quarter of a century, (excluding the
> software industry, which I had to omit from the site.)
>
> John
>
> http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,36158,00.html
>
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/