From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: News: Technology Stocks Had A Bad November
Date: 30 Dec 2000 01:07:00 -0000
BTW, as kind of a comparison of H.M.S NASDAQ's performance this year,
recall that the Asian equity markets dropped, on average, during the
1997/1998 Contagion, about 58%; compared with the NASDAQ's 51% for the
last nine months of this year-or only about 6% less.
Note that the NASDAQ, (unlike the DJIA and S&P which went flat-to-down
in early/mid 1999,) didn't deteriorate until mid March of this year.
What that means is that there is a 50/50 chance that it will not
"bottom" until 2.15 years from mid March this year, (say, about mid
2002-half the time we would expect it to be sooner, half later,) and
not recover until 2.15 years after that, (say, about mid 2004.)
The technology stuff might be in for a rough ride.
John
John Conover writes:
>
> Well, the NASDAQ had to finish up 83 today to avoid year 2000 having
> the dubious distinction of being the worst year of its 30 year
> history. It didn't make it, and is down about 50% from its highs of
> the year, and about 35% on the calendar year.
>
> The NASDAQ lost about 50% of its value since mid March, (about a 180
> trading days,) and the chances of that happening has a standard
> deviation of about 0.02 * sqrt (180) = 0.268, or about 25%; 50% would
> be about two standard deviations which is 0.027, or about 3%, or about
> once in 30 years, (the NASDAQ is 29 years old-started in 1971.)
>
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/