From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Estimates of magnitude and duration of equity market recession
Date: 5 May 2002 23:40:12 -0000
For the curious, the US equity market recession began on February 19,
2001, (the markets dropped below their median values on this date, +/-
2 trading days.)
There is a 50% chance that the equity market recession will bottom
before May 5, 2003, and a 50% chance that it will bottom later.
There is an 84.4134%, (one standard deviation,) chance that, at the
bottom, (on May 5, 2003,) the NASDAQ will close higher than 951.96,
and the same chance that the S&P will close higher than 401.13.
There is a 50% chance that the equity market recession will be over
before July 13, 2005, and a 50% chance it won't.
There is a 50% chance that when the recession is over, (on July 13,
2005,) that the NASDAQ will close higher than 4100.88, and a 50%
chance that it will close lower. There is a 50% chance that the S&P
will close higher than 1612.44, and a 50% chance it will close lower
on the same date. These will be the median values on July 13, 2005.
John
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/