From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Subject: Quantitative Analysis of Non-Linear High Entropy Economic
Systems VI
Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2005 18:19:25 -0700
I added an appendix to "Quantitative Analysis of Non-Linear High Entropy
Economic Systems VI" that describes an empirical methodology
of determining the frequency rate of long term rare economic
catastrophies. It includes the effects of leptokurtosis, (which took
down LTCM, Enron, and the dot-com stocks.)
The frequency rate of catastrophies is required when the Poisson
distribution is used to calculate the chance of a long term rare
catastrophe happening in the mid/short term.
John
http://www.johncon.com/john/correspondence/041015122749.31772.html#appendixV
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/