From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: Traditional Wisdom... LO9059
Date: Mon, 12 Aug 1996 21:37:21 -0700
Rol Fessenden writes:
> Replying to LO9032 --
>
> There is an element of truth to Brock's point of view, and I find myself
> agreeing with him many times a day, especially on a bad day. On the other
> hand, when we indict the leadership selection process, we do so only by
> ignoring history. The industrial -- and now information -- revolution has
> been an astonishing period of growth and change when compared to any prior
> period. The gains made -- not without costs -- have been incredible.
> Just to focus on one aspect, life expectancy has increased from 45-50
> years in 1775 to what -- 83 years? -- in the US today? Not bad for
> mediocre leadership.
>
FWIW, actually, it is 78 years, and we are number 8 in the
industrialized world, as per, The CIA World Factbook, 1995,
referencing the UN's WHO numbers, at
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/95fact/index.html. The 83 number
you quoted is the life expectancy of a 40 year old US female, today,
on average, if life expectancy increases at the same rate as it has
for the past few centuries, for the next 43 years. Life expectancy has
fluctuated over the past few millenia. For example, it is estimated
that at 0 AD, it was in excess of 60 years. By 1000AD, it had dropped,
to less than 40 years, and since has been increasing-depending on who
is telling the story. The life span of Indians in the Amazon has
increased by, roughly, the same percentage over the last millenia,
(with no western medical intervention.) Ditto, the aboriginal tribes
in Borneo.
Thanks for sharing that, huh?
John
BTW, actually, the reason I replied was to point out that it may not
be leadership, mediocre or otherwise, that is responsible for the
increase in longevity. (You seem to be searching for a cause and
effect scenario.) And, BTW, if you remove infant mortality, the US
disease "frequency and severity" rate is only marginally better than
the third world countries, (whoops, I mean emerging nations, in the
politically correct vernacular.)
FWIW ...
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/