Re: Deming said, "in God we trust, all others bring data"

From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: Re: Deming said, "in God we trust, all others bring data"
Date: Wed, 14 Aug 1996 02:47:10 -0700

So if the "Republican Show's" data is a "theory based on certain
assumptions," then how about the Democrats. Well, Again referring to
"Historical Tables: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1996,
tables 1.2 and 2.2 for growth and revenue figures," available from:

    http://www.doc.gov/resources/ESA_info.html Economics and
    Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce, DOC

or:

    gopher://sunny.stat-usa.gov:70/11/BudgetFY96

And in addition:

    http://www.doc.gov/BudgetFY97/index.html

and:

    http://www.doc.gov/BudgetFY96/index.html

and quoting the following paragraphs:

        "Growth is expected to pick up ... Interest-sensitive
        sectors, such as consumer durables and business equipment
        spending, are likely to be at the leading edge of the
        acceleration in response to the fall in long-term interest
        rates during 1995 and the surge in the stock market. On
        average, real GDP is forecast to increase 2.2 percent over the
        four quarters of 1996.

        During 1997-2002, real GDP is projected to rise 2.3 percent
        annually (the Administration's estimate of the economy's
        potential growth rate). Lower interest rates and smaller
        deficits are projected to increase investment and raise the
        trend growth in output per hour. Productivity in the nonfarm
        business sector had been growing at 1.1 percent per year on
        average since 1973, but it is projected to increase 1.2
        percent annually over the next six years."

They only missed the marginal GR by a factor of 2, (4.9 vs. 2.3
percent.) No problem. (Current projections are that the 2.3 percent
is optimistic-actually, falling to closer to 2 percent flat.)

        John

--

John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/