From: John Conover <john@email.johncon.com>
Subject: ZDNN: Evaluating 'the Linux factor'
Date: Thu, 04 Feb 1999 20:31:11 -0800
As a matter of fact, I just spun the numbers again last night-the
attached probabilities are current as of about 6:00 PM yesterday.
The chances that Linux will stay in the market as a visable, but not
dominant OS, is 59.1%.
The chances that Linux will ever dominate NT is 38%, if NT 5.0 is
delayed until after 1999. If NT 5.0 were introduced today, it would
knock Linux's chance of ever dominating NT 5.0 down to 22%.
The chances that Linux will ever dominate Win95, ie., dominate the
desktop, 1.28%.
Bottom line marketing mentality is that chances are that Linux will
remain an also ran, but will be formidable in its market
niche. Chances are only fair that Linux could be a compeditor to NT,
but will probably have enough clout and staying power to keep the
market honest. A wait and see attitude is appropriate for any venture
into the desktop marketplace.
John
http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/comment/0,5859,2202389,00.html
--
John Conover, john@email.johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/